Dry Van Freight in 2026: Why the Market Finally Turned in Carriers' Favor
After years of a soft dry van market, 2026 has brought a real shift. Here's what the current data actually shows about capacity, rates, and why this cycle looks different from the false starts of the last couple of years.
DRY VAN DISPATCH SERVICESTRUCKING INDUSTRYTRUCK DISPATCH SERVICE
Five Star Dispatching
8/15/20265 min read
Dry van carriers have heard "next year will be better" for a while now, and for a while it kept not quite happening. This time the numbers actually back it up. By the middle of 2026, dry van spot rates were running meaningfully higher than a year earlier, and unlike some of the short-lived bumps of the past couple of years, this one has legs behind it that go beyond a single storm or a single busy week.
What the Data Is Actually Showing
ACT Research's July 2026 freight forecast put aggregate spot rates, excluding fuel, up 43 percent year over year in June, with the increase continuing to build into the first half of July. Contract rates moved too, climbing to $2.41 per mile and running about 13 percent above year-ago levels. That's a meaningful detail on its own, because when contract pricing starts following spot rates upward instead of staying flat, it usually signals that shippers and brokers expect the tightness to stick around rather than fade after a seasonal blip.
Truckstop's network data told a similar story, with spot volumes climbing 44 percent in the second quarter and rates expected to run 20 to 25 percent above prior-year levels for the rest of 2026. Dry van linehaul rates specifically were forecast to bottom out around $1.60 per mile in the spring before firming through the summer and into the back half of the year.
Why This Cycle Reads Differently Than Recent False Starts
The 2024 and 2025 dry van markets both had moments that looked like the start of a real recovery, and both times the momentum fizzled without sustained demand growth behind it. What's different in 2026, according to ACT's analysis, is that the current rate strength is being driven almost entirely by supply contraction rather than a demand surge. Freight volumes remain uneven, but capacity has tightened enough on its own to push rates up regardless.
The Supply Side Is Where the Real Story Lives
Class 8 tractor orders have stayed subdued, and smaller carriers have continued exiting the market at a pace that's steadily rationalizing overall capacity. C.H. Robinson's research points to this same dynamic, noting that stress becomes especially visible during events like International Roadcheck week, when even a small dip in available capacity produces outsized rate volatility because the market has so little slack left to absorb it.
Regulatory enforcement has added another layer on top of this. Stricter driver qualification requirements and tighter compliance oversight are making it harder for carriers to add or retain marginal capacity, which keeps the pool of available trucks tighter than raw truck counts alone would suggest.
Market Signal2026 Data PointAggregate spot rates (excl. fuel), June 2026Up 43% year-over-yearAggregate contract rates, June 2026$2.41/mile, up 13% year-over-yearTruckload spot volume growth, Q2 2026Up 44% year-over-year (Truckstop network)Dry van linehaul rate trough forecastAround $1.60/mile, spring 2026
Operating Costs Are Rising Right Alongside Rates
It's worth being honest that higher rates aren't pure upside. The American Transportation Research Institute's most recent survey showed truckload operating costs, excluding fuel, up nearly 4 percent year over year, sitting on top of roughly 25 percent cumulative cost inflation over the prior three years. Insurance, equipment financing, and maintenance have all been climbing steadily, which means a meaningful share of these rate gains are going toward keeping pace with costs rather than translating directly into wider margins.
C.H. Robinson's own 2026 forecast reflects this tension directly. Their model attributes much of the projected rate increase specifically to the ongoing cost of operating a truck, not to a burst of new freight demand. For carriers, that's an important distinction. Rate growth driven by cost inflation still needs to be negotiated for, and a dispatcher who's only looking at headline rate increases without accounting for the cost side of the equation isn't giving carriers the full picture.
What This Means for Rate Conversations Right Now
A dispatcher negotiating dry van freight in this environment has more leverage than they've had in a couple of years, but it's leverage that needs to be used deliberately. Broker load-to-truck ratios have been climbing, hitting notable spikes around seasonal pressure points, and a carrier or dispatcher who's tracking these ratios in real time is in a far stronger position than one negotiating off outdated rate expectations from the softer years.
Regional Patterns Are Still Worth Watching Closely
Even in a broadly tightening market, conditions aren't uniform everywhere. The Midwest, which represents close to half of national dry van load volume according to DAT's tracking, has consistently shown rates running above the national average, with carriers in that region earning notably more per mile than the national rolling average during several weeks this year. Mexico border crossings through South Texas have flipped between shortage and adequate capacity conditions multiple times this year, which is exactly the kind of regional volatility worth tracking rather than assuming a single national number applies evenly everywhere.
What Carriers Should Actually Take From This
The dry van market in 2026 isn't a return to the boom conditions of 2021, and nobody serious is forecasting that. What it is, according to multiple independent research firms now pointing in the same direction, is a genuine structural shift away from the oversupplied, rate-depressed conditions that defined the last couple of years. ACT Research's own language on this is direct: dry van rates appear less likely to return to the trough conditions seen during the prior downcycle, because the tightening is rooted in capacity leaving the market permanently rather than a temporary seasonal dip.
For carriers and dispatchers, that means rate expectations built during 2023 and 2024 need to be updated, not clung to out of habit. The carriers capturing the most value in this market are the ones actively renegotiating based on current data rather than accepting rates that made sense two years ago but don't reflect where the market actually sits today.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is the 2026 dry van rate increase driven by more freight or less capacity?
According to ACT Research and C.H. Robinson, the current rate strength is being driven primarily by capacity contraction, including carrier exits and regulatory enforcement, rather than a significant increase in freight demand.
How much have dry van spot rates actually increased in 2026?
Aggregate spot rates excluding fuel were up 43 percent year over year in June 2026 according to ACT Research, with continued strengthening reported into July.
Are rising operating costs eating into the benefit of higher rates for carriers?
To some degree, yes. Truckload operating costs excluding fuel rose nearly 4 percent year over year according to ATRI, layered on top of roughly 25 percent cumulative cost inflation over the prior three years, meaning some rate gains are offsetting cost increases rather than purely improving margins.
Will dry van rates keep climbing through the rest of 2026?
Multiple forecasts, including from C.H. Robinson and ACT Research, project continued firming through the second half of 2026, though the pace of increase is expected to be more gradual than the sharp gains seen earlier in the year.
Ready to Negotiate Dry Van Rates That Reflect Today's Market, Not Last Year's?
Five Star Dispatching tracks current load-to-truck ratios, regional rate data, and capacity trends across dry van lanes nationwide, so every rate we negotiate reflects where the market actually is right now.
See our dry van dispatch services and let's talk about what your truck could be earning in this market.
Related reading: Reefer Freight in 2026: Why Produce Season Is Paying Better Than It Has in Years | RGN Dispatch Services: Why Heavy Haul Freight Is Having Its Moment in 2026
External resources: ACT Research Freight Trucking Rates | American Transportation Research Institute
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